What the Union Budget is Expected to Be Like?

The domestic markets bucked the trend that was being witnessed by the international markets and reacted negatively during this phase. In the last six months, market have been gyrating and experiencing extreme volatility, losing almost 15% since November after reaching a 52-weel high. This has been a conscequence of several factors. The commencement of high interest rate regime for combating inflation and buoyant commodity and crude prices acted as serious detriments. On top of this, political uncertanity spoilt the market enviroment further.


As a result of all this, the emphasis in the upcoming Union Budget is expected to be on maintenance and even acceleration of growth and employment rate. The ensuing budget is anticiapted to take note of the current scenario and announce policies and reforms for supporting and forming a suitable base for the economy to continue to grow at 8%+ levels. The budget is likely to be skewed towards investment rather than consumption. Agriculture & related activities would continue to be the focus area as inflation and food security is high on the government agenda. Government would allocate higher amounts towards infrastructure (logistics, rural infrastructure and water management), education and technology to give a multiplier effect to the economy to sustain high GDP growth in the coming years.


The Union Budget 2011-12 might be a key from a policy stand point and may provide incremental direction to markets. There is an inherent value in India economy given the growth story and favorable demographic, but catalysts are required at macro level to deleverage the underlying value.