What the Union Budget is Expected to Be Like?

The domestic markets bucked the trend that was being witnessed by the international markets and reacted negatively during this phase. In the last six months, market have been gyrating and experiencing extreme volatility, losing almost 15% since November after reaching a 52-weel high. This has been a conscequence of several factors. The commencement of high interest rate regime for combating inflation and buoyant commodity and crude prices acted as serious detriments. On top of this, political uncertanity spoilt the market enviroment further.


As a result of all this, the emphasis in the upcoming Union Budget is expected to be on maintenance and even acceleration of growth and employment rate. The ensuing budget is anticiapted to take note of the current scenario and announce policies and reforms for supporting and forming a suitable base for the economy to continue to grow at 8%+ levels. The budget is likely to be skewed towards investment rather than consumption. Agriculture & related activities would continue to be the focus area as inflation and food security is high on the government agenda. Government would allocate higher amounts towards infrastructure (logistics, rural infrastructure and water management), education and technology to give a multiplier effect to the economy to sustain high GDP growth in the coming years.


The Union Budget 2011-12 might be a key from a policy stand point and may provide incremental direction to markets. There is an inherent value in India economy given the growth story and favorable demographic, but catalysts are required at macro level to deleverage the underlying value.

Stock Idea- Ceat Ltd.

The investment rationale of Ceat:

• Robust auto sales outlook to boost demand for tyres
• Acquisition of global brand rights to provide huge potential for growth
• Capacity expansion would enable Ceat to focus on higher margin replacement segment

Outlook & Valuation

As said by Unicon Investment Solutions, "We have used the discounted cash flow (DCF) method to value Ceat due to its huge capex plan, the benefits of which would accrue over a longer period. We have arrived at a target price of INR 149 based on a discount rate of 10.1% and a terminal growth of 2%. The target price implies a potential upside of 37% from current levels for an investment horizon of 12 months. Thus, we recommend a Buy on the stock."

Bharti Airtel Announces Q3 Results

Bharti Airtel, a leading Telecom player, announced its third quarter results wherein it registered a decline of 40.62% in its net income, mainly due to the rise in spectrum charges as well as the costs recently incurred by the company for relaunching its brand. The net income decreased from INR2,194.9 crore in the third quarter of previous fiscal to INR1,303.3 crore.

However, the company's total revenues have increased from INR10,305.3 crore in the previous fiscal to INR15,576 crore, a 51.14% jump. Furthermore, the verage revenue per person (ARPU) of Bharti Airteldecreased from INR202 in the previous quarter to INR198 in this quarter.


In terms of QoQ (quarter on quarter), profit before tax of Bharti Airtel was majorly affected by brand relaunching costs, which was about INR340 crore. And in terms of YoY (year on year), the profit before tax plunged again due to higher spectrum charges and net interest outgo, which are INR80 crore and INR471 crore respectively, along with the forex losses and brand relaunching costs. The exchange losses, valued at INR151 crore, were due to the negative fluctutations in the foreign currencies in India and Africa.

 On this Wednesday, the company's share prices increased by 3.52% to reach INR325.70 on Bombay Stock Exchange.